ESPN sees Tua Tagovailoa's 2025 struggles as a trend, not a blip

The Atlanta Falcons got one heck of a bargain by signing Tua Tagovailoa to a one-year contract for the veteran minimum. Even if Tagovailoa doesn't start for the team in 2026, most good NFL backups make considerably more than $1.2 million per year.

However, there was a reason that Tua was available in free agency. The Miami Dolphins were willing to absorb a $99.2 million dead cap hit just to release the former top-five pick. Tagovailoa made the Pro Bowl in 2023 but failed to match that success over the last few seasons.

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Former Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel pulled the plug on Tagovailoa after 14 games in 2025. It was the first time since his rookie season that he finished with a passer rating under 90. Tagovailoa passed for 2,660 yards, 20 touchdowns and 15 interceptions while leading the team to a 6-8 record.

ESPN's Ben Solak examined several of last season's underachievers, including Tua, to find out whether their struggles were part of an overall trend or if they were simply a blip.

"To ask if Tagovailoa's 2025 season was a blip or a trend, we have to first wonder how much of his previous offensive success was a blip itself," asked Solak. "Tagovailoa's efficiency shot through the ceiling in 2022 under McDaniel, who had sculpted a perfect offense to highlight his strengths -- the quick release, the willingness to throw accurate balls into tight coverage -- and conceal his weaknesses. But that was a blip. It's hard to sustain an explosive passing game when the quarterback lacks strong downfield accuracy given modest arm strength."

Solak goes on to say that Tagovailoa is a good enough player to have success in Stefanski's system, however, he labeled the former Dolphins QB's struggles in 2025 as more of a trend than a blip.

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"I still think 2025 is more trend than blip for Tagovailoa; he'll continue to produce more modest numbers outside of the McDaniel offense than he ever produced in it," added Solak. "However, he has enough positive traits that good offensive coaches should get passable starting play out of him -- and Stefanski is a good offensive coach. For as dramatic a fall as Tagovailoa suffered statistically in 2025, he can rebound nicely in 2026."

The Falcons were wise to sign Tagovailoa with Michael Penix Jr. limited by his ACL recovery. Both lefty quarterbacks have a lot to prove this season, but only one will get the opportunity to do so. Coming off of an injury, Penix is obviously a little bit behind, but Stefanski made sure to clarify that the QB competition wouldn't be settled in June.

Penix hopes to be fully cleared by the time training camp starts in July. Until then, Tagovailoa has the keys to Stefanski's offense. We'll see if he can make the most of his second chance.

The Falcons are off for the summer but will return on July 29 for their first training camp practice. The team will hold 10 open practices, starting on July 31, and will end with two joint sessions with the Indianapolis Colts.

This article originally appeared on Falcons Wire: Atlanta Falcons: ESPN sees Tua Tagovailoa's struggles as a trend