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How a Good Year at USC Could Still Send Lincoln Riley Packing

The USC Trojans are facing a make-or-break year, and it’s possible that even with a good season, coach Lincoln Riley could lose his job.

That’s the argument made by college football analyst Josh Pate on his podcast, “Josh Pate’s College Football Show.”

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When listing coaches on the hot seat, Pate mentioned Riley as facing some pressure.

 Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Dec 30, 2025; San Antonio, TX, USA; Southern California Trojans head coach Lincoln Riley watches in the first half against the TCU Horned Frogs during the Alamo Bowl at Alamodome. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Riley is entering his fifth season as coach of the Trojans (Pate erroneously referred to this being Riley’s sixth season) and has yet to take his team to the playoffs, despite the tournament’s expansion and a Heisman Trophy winning quarterback.

“And at a place like USC, the [fifth] year is well past the line in the sand past which you can’t be selling people on promise and hope and the future and optimism. You got to have results,” Pate said. “That is a totally totally fair stance for anyone to have. And I think they do have it. And I think that’s the situation. And I think everyone understands it there.”

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What people may not understand, though, is even if Riley has a good year, it could be the end of his time in cardinal and gold.

Riley, Trojans face an uphill battle in 2026

With Pate’s projection of a College Football Playoff spot needed to save Riley’s job, the Trojans’ “fairly difficult schedule” could be his undoing.

As we saw last season, a 9-3 or 10-2 record is borderline when it comes to the CFP, and has two very tough home games: Oregon and Ohio State.

Both programs are perennial title contenders, and as Pate notes, losing both those games — even by small margins — could knock the Trojans out.

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Just ask last season’s Notre Dame team, which went 10-2 and lost those two games by a combined four points, but still was left out.

Add in USC’s visit to Bloomington to take on the defending national champion Indiana Hoosiers on Nov. 14 and 9-3 looks like a solid season.

True, outstanding quarterback Jayden Maiava is returning, but he’s missing his top two targets in Makai Lemon and Ja’Kobi Lane, both off to the NFL.

“Is it really really playoff or bust?” Pate said. “I think it may be, but man, if you’re still the head coach now and all that changes between now and then is you go 9-3 against a really really tough schedule, is that is that enough ammo? I I don’t know. We’ll see.”

The post How a Good Year at USC Could Still Send Lincoln Riley Packing appeared first on LA Sports Report.

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